Technical breakdown specific to green coffee costs:

There have been a number of developments over the course of the past 12 months within the Coffee Terminal Markets both in New York on the Arabica side as well as London on the Robusta market. Coffee is the second most traded commodity on the futures markets, in volume terms.
 
The summary of the last years activity within the context of physical supply to consumer markets, is related to activity within Brazil, the supply of coffee from this, world’s largest producer to consumer markets.  The climatic disruptions experienced in Colombia, two La Nina events in two years, as well as two Cyclones through Central America in 2020, which have created a disruption to production from this quality sector of coffee producers. The worldwide Covid-19 related equipment, space, congestion, the related inability to move coffee from producer nations to consumer markets, has had an impact upon the supply chain and coffee flow to consumer markets.
 
The development of the Brazil 2021/22 crop, which was always due to be a biennial lower bearing crop cycle, was initially forecast to reach 62 million bags.  This initial forecast was gradually cut back as field surveys evidenced that the dry weather experienced in the latter part of 2020, had affected the flowering more severely than initially predicted.  The crop loss, estimated at between 8 – 8.5 million bags of Brazil coffee, of the arabica growing regions, which did not come to fruition in the downcycle year. The arrival of the frosts in July 2021, did not have a notable impact on the Brazil 2021/22 crop.  This coffee harvest was already in the process of harvesting at that time.  The most damage sustained was to the development of the Brazil 2022/23 crop, which is currently in harvest.  The Brazil 2022/23 crop year is an on-cycle crop production year.  All being well, and with the coffee in the ground, Brazil crop forecasters would have, pre-frost event, anticipated this year’s production to be somewhere in the region of another record year of 72/73 million bags.  The July 2021 frost, the first frost event for decades with extensive damage sustained and vast areas of coffee trees affected in various degrees by the frost damage, meant that production of this 2022/23 crop year, which ‘should’ potentially have reached 72/73 million bags and will only potentially reach around 64 million bags.  Thus, an estimated 8 million bags of coffee supply removed from the coffee flow, from this key supplier of coffee to global coffee consumer markets.
 
Furthermore, there have been disruptions in the energy, packaging and materials markets worldwide. With the coffee industry feeling the pinch across primary cost drivers.

What is happening with the cost of coffee: